NY Times -- 538
Submitted by whecht on Thu, 06/03/2010 - 09:49
This is actually big news. or maybe not.
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/the-new-york-times-to-h...
Fivethirtyeight.com is the first site that actually understands the math behind elections.
I remember talking to Lisa on Election night 2008 and said that Obama was guaranteed to win CA, HI, OR and WA since McCain never even campaigned there and it was not reasonable to think that Obama could win 200 electoral votes in the east, about as expected, and not win states on the west coast.
Since those states didn't close until 11PM EST then Obama's magic number was not 270, it was 193(?). As soon as they called OH for Obama then that put him over the top.
Nate Silver understand all that. He understands it all far better than I do.
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538 is great... this
538 is great... this hechtmail.com web site first turned me on to the site. It is very interesting what he does, and hopefully being a part of nytimes.com, will get a larger audience. People should be informed based on facts and not on what the tea partiers say. :-)